An analyst named Ming-Chi Kuo has recently issued a new research note today, which cuts his shipment estimates for the iPhone XR due to many different factors. He really believes that much of the decline will be offset by higher demand for the iPhone XS and the older “legacy” models, though he’s still reducing his overall iPhone shipment forecasts by 15-20% for the very first quarter of 2019.
We’ve now reduced our iPhone XR shipment estimation from 100mn units to 70mn during the brand new product lifecycle (4Q18-3Q19), for the first following reasons: 1) Because of negative impacts on consumers confidence from the trade war, and also especially in the Chinese market, 2) The expectations from more consumers for a more affordable XR or the dual-camera and narrower bezel design to be provided at the current price level, and 3) Competition from Huawei’s Mate 20 series. We have also attempted to reduce our XR shipment estimations for 4Q18, 1Q19, and 2Q19, all by 30-35%, 25-30% and 25-30% to 30-35 and 10-15mn units.
Kuo also has believed that the iPhone’s being shipped for the current quarter will be the same 75-80 million range he had previously predicted before hand, while he has also lowered his first quarter estimate to 47-52 million from a previous range of 55-60 million.
Kuo’s prediction is somewhat curious given that he’s basically already raised his early iPhone XR estimates a little less than a month ago and after already citing the stronger demand that he had seen for the iPhone 8 last year with the potential for a more stable demand over the year.
Apple’s new stock price is down over 4% today, which outpaces braoder markets as they decline and fall to it’s lowest point since the end of July.